The 2021 Warcollier Prize
2021 Warcollier Research Award granted by IRVA/IRIS
Investigation of ARV Session-Event Time Delay and Judging Protocols
for Horse Race Predictions
Tom Atwater, Ph.D.,
ABSTRACT: Two hypotheses were tested for using forced-choice Associative Remote Viewing (ARV) to predict the outcomes of horse races: 1) there is a negative correlation between the time delay (time elapsed from ARV session to event actualization) and prediction success, and 2) independent judging will result in more successful outcomes for predictions than self-judging. Ten viewers and two independent judges predicted the outcome of one race per week for 13 weeks, resulting in a total of 129 ARV sessions, 377 judging scores, and 279 viable predictions, for time delays between 5 and 56 hours. No significant correlation was found for Hypothesis 1 Time Delay for the data overall; some data indicated increasing success at shorter time delays, especially for independently judged sessions and for sessions by more successful viewers. Success also increased for time delays of 40 to 50 hours, resulting in a “U-shaped” distribution of hit rates with time delays (more success at high and low time delays but not in-between), contrary to Hypothesis 1. For Hypothesis 2, no statistically significant correlations were found between self-judging and independent judging; our confidence in this conclusion may be affected by an almost statistically significant difference between the scoring of the two independent judges, χ2 (1, N = 188) = 3.01, p = .083 (α = 0.5).